Rankings | Those scouting mistakes we regret…
A text from Simon St-Laurent (TSLH Espoirs)
You can follow Simon on Twitter at @19Simon19
French version: Rankings | Ces choix que l’on regrette avec du recul…
Limiting myself to only one article per year, which is my annual NHL Draft ranking, I found that I was missing out on great opportunities to write on the subject and to broaden the scope of this practice. Over the past two years, various topics related to scouting were running through my mind. I finally opted to talk about various players in my rankings over the past few years that are shaping up to be mistakes and which I regret.
I had actually shared a series of tweets last year on the cusp of the draft in this regard.
While this is not the most enjoyable exercise to do, it remains a necessary evil, and it provides an opportunity for frank and honest retrospection on our reasoning behind certain choices.
The reality remains that making too big of an adjustment can be just as dangerous as not changing a single thing. For each example proving us right or wrong, there are counter-examples to nullify this point.
Scouting mistakes happen
Not all mistakes are created equal. Some will setback an organization for years, and others will go unnoticed if the team picks up a player who will contribute in his own way to the success of their team. For example, the Boston Bruins could very well have had Jakob Chychrun ranked 40th on their list in 2016, they came out of the first round with Charlie McAvoy who is the undisputed number one defenseman in their team so the whole misevaluation is of no consequence. However, it remains imperative to question the reasons that led to this (hypothetical) mistake.
To take this hobby very seriously for the past few years, I will still limit the exercise mainly to the last two drafts. The reason is that to assess a player correctly, you have to see him at different points in the season, in different contexts and taking care to establish the right comparable to properly judge his potential, his projection as well as his limitations. Several players require more viewing than others. Over the years, it has happened regularly that after about 15 viewing of a player, I still had virtually no idea where to rank him. The number of variables to be taken into consideration is very large and to rank a player it implies that we must have a clear opinion on the other players appearing in the same waters as him. It has happened to me very often to change my opinion about a player several times within a season, it is for this reason that I will rule out several errors, because it is very likely that with more viewings, my take on the player would have been different.
In a scenario with a limited sample on one player, what if the viewing were very scattered during the year? What if he has been inconstant? What if we didn’t like him at the start of the season, but changed our mind at the end of the year? It may show progress, which is always to be taken into consideration, but what if we loved a player at the start of the season and ended up being colder on him? This is one of the reasons that shaped my current ‘methodology’. The number of players making their way to the NHL per draft is smaller than you think and above all, I would say that in each draft, I have on average about twenty players that I really like, so I don’t really see why I would rank two rounds-worthy of players. I prefer to accumulate more views on the players I rank in my first round and try to nail it as much as possible. Especially since in reality, if in the middle of the second round, no player is worthy of this selection, you can always trade your pick for the equivalent in the following year, or trade back and accumulate an additional asset or even use it to trade up.
Omitting mistakes such as Adam Erne> Anthony Duclair, having Sam Steel in very high esteem or not liking Samuel Girard at all, I will limit the players presented to the last two drafts, that being said, I will still start with a player from the 2015 draft;
Nick Merkley:
Being my two favorite prospects, I was following Josh Morrissey and Leon Draisaitl very closely after their respective draft. I even took an AHL forfeit in 2014 to watch all of Morrissey’s playoff games with the Manitoba Moose. The two having been traded to the Kelowna Rockets in the WHL, I had watched every game they had played in the playoffs as well as at the Memorial Cup. Which gave me more than enough viewing to assess Nick Merkley. The size / skate combination was far from optimal, but his hockey-sense and playmaking skills were very good. In addition, his work ethic and the intangibles he brought made him a legitimate prospect for the NHL despite his shortcomings.
TSLH Draft content: Rankings, scouting reports and draft profils
Of course, his offensive production was amped up by the quality of the team for which he played, but having seen him on numerous occasions, it often happened that it was him who was the spark plug of the team and that sets his teammates up. A certain statistical regression was to be expected, but seeing him get only one pts per game his 20 YO season after having, on average 1.27 PPG in his draft year, still represented a major red flag in terms of his progression. That said, he got 39 pts in his first 38 AHL games in his rookie year which is very impressive. Although injuries will have bothered him as the seasons go by, I’m still surprised that he’s never carved out a place for himself as a regular in the NHL.
Lucas Raymond:
Raymond is a player I ranked 9th on my list in 2020. He started the season 2nd for me and I saw him as a serious contender for Alexis Lafrenière. His rank didn’t do justice to the appreciation I had for him. However, not only did he not have a lot of opportunities to show off in SHL, there were some aspects of his game that made me a bit worried. Among other things, he didn’t played in dangerous areas, stayed on the periphery and being sent down to the U-20 league in Sweden, his work ethic had been very questionable in the games I had watched. It’s possible to make the best evaluation possible on a player, but still be wrong at the end of the day, when I watch Raymond be the first to get his nose dirty in the goal crease at the NHL level it is definitely not something I had anticipated. Lack of talent has never been the cause. In the end, the cancellation of the U-18 tournament due to the Covid will have been the most important factor in the ranking of several players that year and Raymond was at the top of the list of players that I was waiting to assess in a more favorable context.
Sam Colangelo:
24th in my ranking in 2020. Colangelo is a big 6’02 right-handed shot RW. Playing for the Chicago Steel (as well as at WJAC) with Brendan Brisson and Sean Farrel, it was Colangelo who had caught my attention the most, because I believed that his size gave him an advantage over his teammates in terms of taking their game to the next level. Blessed with an excellent set of hands and playmaking talents ranking very high among his peers in the 2020 Draft, Colangelo was showing some progression in his skating and also, the more the year progressed, the more he was learning to use his very good wrist shot properly. The potential was very enticing. There is also a reason why Martin Madden Jr, perceived as the best of his profession by the majority of observers, has set his sights on this player at the 36th rank of the 2020 draft. Also, one NHL scout on the cover of anonymity had also mentioned that Colangelo was possibly the biggest home run in the second round.
Also on TSLH: Décision importante des Sénateurs pour le développement d’un choix de 1er tour | Tournoi terminé pour cet espoir du prochain repêchage?
However, there were some concerns, Colangelo did not exhibit the best work ethic and he had a strong tendency to drift off to the outside rather than attacking the slot and the dirty areas. To have seen him a few times in NCAA this season, there were times when I was still like, ‘wow, if he manages to put all his skills in harmony and it ends up clicking, we’re going to a very good hockey player on our hands », but there were also other times when he was just plain frustrating to watch on the ice; inconsistencies, lack of intensity, still fails to dominate despite his talent, etc. It still remains a player that I had said he was going to take some time to develop and at the time he was drafted, I said that I would leave him 4 years in the NCAA but so far, I am not satisfied with what I see.
Anton Lundell:
Lundell is the player I saw the least in my ranking in 2020. With around 20 viewing for the majority of players, I only had 6 for the Finn C. I didn’t like Lundell and I wasn’t hiding from it. In the best-case scenario, I would have placed him 17th on my list (to put it in context, I had Jacob Perreault 14th, Lukas Reichel 15th and John-Jason Peterka 16th). Since I knew full well he was going to be drafted higher than where I would have been comfortable selecting him, I just preferred to put him lower and lower on my list. I really didn’t like Lundell’s skating, although his top speed was relatively decent, I found his agility to be a big limiting factor in his case. His wrist shot was devastating, but as a center I couldn’t see him making his wingers better. I saw him as a comparable to Lars Eller. I know several NHL scouts were also on the skeptics’ side on Lundell. Since then he has greatly improved his skating, he has become more assertive in a one-on-one situation and has started to establish himself as the player taking matters into account on the ice and he is now going to win one-on-one battles along the boards before making a play for a teammate rather than standing high in the slot waiting for the plays to come to him as was the case in the Liiga.
As I mentioned in the introduction, when you contextualize the implications of our ranking tangibly, you can escape some mistakes if you come out of the draft table with another equally good player. Lundell was selected 13th overall, and at this point the 6th player on my list, Seth Jarvis, was still available, and I wouldn’t regret taking Jarvis ahead of Lundell in any way. Despite my limited views on the player, it would have been better if I didn’t fall for sentimentality and ranked Lundell more rationally, which would probably have been 17-22 rather than 30th.
Tristan Broz:
The 2021 draft was very strange. Regardless of the special conditions regarding the unfolding of the season of the various leagues due to the Covid-19, the draft was very weak in my eyes and the majority of the players on whom I was more enthusiastic than the average had very big question mark. Even the top players in this draft had limitations in their game that were not to be overlooked. Evaluating players was one thing, but deciding between them and coming up with a ranking was quite another. More than ever, I found myself ranking players in places I would never have selected said player. Broz was probably the most glaring example. I had been careful to mention in two places that Broz would have been an early second round selection for me (between 30 and 40) despite being 15th on my list. To recap what I liked and what tickled me about the player, here is the full profile I made of him:
Broz is a player I have started to scout rather late this season, starting my views on him in May. Like a lot of players this season, Broz has been quite difficult to rank as he has had some very strong games and others that are much more low-key. He is also one of those players whose rank on my list is not representative of where I would select him.
Broz is a talented and intelligent winger who brings a lot of intangibles with him. Without being a very physical player, Broz likes to stir the pot and he is constantly disturbing the opponent. He is also quite talkative on a regular basis. My first viewing on the player was during a back-to-back against Sioux Falls and Cole Sillinger and Broz had the upper hand over the latter, which is saying something! This is called making a good first impression. He had been very abrasive those games and had shown himself to be the kind of player I quickly fall in love with; talented, good in all three zones, very smart with the puck, quick in his decision-making and execution and disturbs the opponent.
An example of this description is during a game, he was on the receiving end of a hard hit but barely legal, he immediately got up, and without moving towards the player (which had me a little disappointed) he regained his position on the ice, received a pass in the neutral zone and went to set up a goal on the counterattack, he then immediately went towards the guy that hit him and went to applaud him directly in his face.
With that style of play, it’s a little surprising that Broz is one of the best passers in the draft. Especially when it comes to power plays. He hides his intentions well and can make very difficult passes through multiple players. His saucer passes are also remarkably precise.
He also has a very good wrist shot. His shot is heavy and precise and he uses it very well. He has the patience and the skill to use a little “drag” to delay his shot. He also knows when it’s better to send the puck to the net without necessarily trying to beat goalies cleanly, such as when there are teammates in front of the goalie ready to jump on the rebounds. He likes to take sharp angle shots as well.
Like many players this season, his skating was hard to assess. At times it seemed to look like something that might limit him and at other times he seemed quick, dynamic and capable of good acceleration to beat his opponents. Broz is very good at using the technique called ’10 -2 ‘(think of Sidney Crosby or Jeff Skinner) where he will open his hips by making a slight rotation of the pelvis and trunk to give the impression that he is braking and watching for a pass to the center but he actually retains all his speed and deceives the opponent as well. I also love the fact that he plays from east to west on the entry. It gives defenders a hard time, he can then use his vision to spot a teammate or his speed and hands to make his way to the net. This is a sign that the player is not playing in the corridor which often shows signs of limits in the Hockey IQ department.
Another aspect of Broz’s game that I really like is his intelligence and his patience with the puck. The term ‘Poise’ is used to refer to defensemen who are calm with the puck, never falters under the pressure on the forecheck and who knows how to delay their plays at appropriate times. Even as forward I would be inclined to use that quality with Broz, in all three zones he reacts very well with puck possession when a player puts pressure on him. He is able to slow down the game and make a small deke to eliminate a player and open up passing options. He never gives in to pressure and always makes sure his team stays in possession of the puck.
Now, to mention the things that I didn’t like during my views on this player; Broz has had rather low-key games. On several occasions during the regular season, he didn’t seem like he wanted to be Fargo’s go-to-guy. On the power play he stood very far in his own zone on the outbreak, as if he didn’t want to be the ‘Slingshot’ option so that he wouldn’t be caught carrying the puck (when a player is carrying the puck in the neutral zone to push back the opposing defense and then send it back into his own territory so that a player can control the puck at full speed against a static defense) yet he has the hands and the speed to be able to maneuver against the defensive wall. Sometimes on a breakout, he gives the puck to a teammate and will not attack the neutral zone or the free spaces to give himself as a passing option or recover a free puck as Francesco Pineli do so well. He will rather seek to be forgotten. He can be a few games without being noticed at 5v5.
In the playoffs, I watched Fargo’s 9 games and he played really well. I was even shocked at how fast he looked.
He is not a player that I would select at the spot I ranked him, ideally, he would represent a very good value between 30 and 40. Despite the occasional 5v5 absences, I believe he can become a 2nd-3rd line in the NHL that could play on the power play and bring an interesting dimension.
I believe that the fact that I condensed 20 games of the player in a short period of time may have influenced his ranking on my list. Normally, when a player disappoints us after watching 2-3 games, it can be a while before we see him again. This bitter taste will stay in our mouths longer and our ranking will be adjusted accordingly. Since in Broz’s case, those streaks where I got more bullish on him were quickly followed by games where I found him very good again, they didn’t leave the same unfavorable impression I have encountered with other players in this season. Ideally, I should have ranked him not any higher than 24th. Right now, his NCAA debut is tough. In spite of that, he shouldn’t be a first round pick, but Hindsight is 20/20 and there were still several elements of his game that were appreciable. I watched 2 games at the start of his season and despite his absence on the scoresheet I had noticed several positive things; his skating looked pretty good at NCAA level (which was pretty inconsistent in the USHL last year), he attacked more dangerous areas instead of staying on the outside and got several quality shots. I saw an extra 2 games before he was scratched from the lineup and he seemed totally lost on the ice, didn’t play with the little edge he had in the USHL, seemed physically weak and lacking in confidence. Of course, it’s still early and there is a chance he’ll get his act together, but right now I’m biting my fingers.
In conclusion
It will be interesting to repeat the exercise regularly. Inevitably, this list will only grow and grow, so is the reality of scouting, but it does provide an opportunity to learn from our mistakes. It is also possible for players to appear as a bad pick one season just to become a good pick the next, and vice versa. The progression of a player is certainly not something linear.
Thank you for reading me and I look forward to presenting my draft ranking to you this summer.
Commentaires